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Supporting Brexit And The Tories Will Cost Labour Seats In Parliament Survey Finds

One of the largest surveys done since 2016 on voter intentions and on Brexit, has given a blow to the view that Labour's strategy on the subject of Brexit will ensure they are able to unite both the country and the party itself.

An analysis of the giant YouGov poll of more than 25,000 people, shows Labour currently enjoys the support of 56% of 18 - 24 year olds.

But if the party decides to back the prime minister’s deal this drops to just 40%.

The survey also suggests the party would not get away with trying to avoid taking a position, as it seems hell bent on doing so far, despite their own Conference 2018 to, in certain circumstances, back a People's Vote on any final exit deal with the EU.

The youth of today see their future being best served by the country being part of the EU. Indeed the survey results show that if Labour abstains, fails to whip its MPs, or otherwise does not fully oppose Brexit, only 42% of 18-24 year olds said they would vote for the party at the next election.

Labour has said it will vote against the prime minister’s deal when it is put to a vote in the Commons next week. However, Jeremy Corbyn's letter to Theresa May offering support for her exit deal with the EU providing five conditions are met; proves total reluctance to support and campaign for a People's Vote - simply because he knows as most people do, that the EU Referendum result over two and a half years ago; could very well be overturned!

People now understand the risk to the NHS and worker's rights is huge if we were to have to form a Trade Deal with the USA. They also understand that food safety, environmental standards, and our employment laws and health and safety at work legislation would be damaged beyond recognition as a result of the Tory Government being empowered to slash ALL EU standards as demanded by the USA in order to make a Trade Deal with them.

Figures from surveys in January of last year showed that the public were happier to have no deal with the US if it meant the above slashing of standards and protection as we have with being in the EU. See this website for the information on that poll: www.ippr.org/research/publications/have-your-cake-or-eat-it 

The Huffington Post says in a report by their correspondent Ned Simons:

'The YouGov survey sampled over 2,000 18 - 24 year old’s - the largest ever survey specifically on Brexit and young people since the 2016 referendum.

Corbyn has come under increasing pressure to back a second referendum as the prospect of a no deal Brexit increases.

But the Labour leader has said his priority is to secure a general election and lead the UK out of the EU on his own terms. The party has only committed to possibly holding a referendum, which could stop Brexit, should it be unable to force a general election.'

Theresa May is reported to be planning a major publicity campaign beginning with broadcasting radio adverts to help people prepare for Brexit, focusing on topics including passports, visas, healthcare and driving in the EU. They will provide information on both no-deal and other Brexit scenarios, and will be followed by billboards and posters in the coming weeks.

However, despite platitudes about worker's rights (with zero mention of health and safety at work protection) and bribes to a number of Labour MPs in the form of money for their hard hit areas; the Tories are set to demolish our NHS, public services and the Human Rights Act once we leave the EU.

But it is not just the poll of some 25,000 people that Labour is struggling with as a leaked document of analysis on the back of that poll shows they could lose up to 45 MPs in the next election if Labour does not oppose the Tory exit deal and plumb for a People's Vote.

The Guardian reports this:

'A trade union affiliated with the Labour party has claimed that Jeremy Corbyn’s party could lose an additional 45 seats in a snap election if it fails to take an anti-Brexit position, in a leaked report.

The report, drawn up by the transport union TSSA and including extensive polling, was sent to the leftwing pressure group Momentum. It appears to be an attempt to pile pressure on the Labour leader over Brexit.

It claims that “Brexit energises Labour remain voters” disproportionately, and warns: “There is no middle way policy which gets support from both sides of the debate.” Sources inside the party stressed that there were risks from turning either way on Brexit – and other polls showed a different picture.'

The article then goes on to detail some of the facts in the leaked report which was never intended for publication.

The document – marked strictly confidential – says: “There can be no disguising the sense of disappointment and disillusionment with Labour if it fails to oppose Brexit and there is every indication that it will be far more damaging to the party’s electoral fortunes than the Iraq war.

“Labour would especially lose the support of people below the age of 35, which could make this issue comparable to the impact the tuition fees and involvement in the coalition had on Lib Dem support.”

The document starts by pointing out that the TSSA has “supported Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership from the very beginning”.It says that the party’s supporters view Brexit as a “Tory project”. It adds that four-fifths of them believe the current deal will hurt the British economy and 91.4% of Labour voters do not trust the government to deliver a good Brexit for people such as them.

The report concludes: “If there is an election in 2019, Labour will get a lower share of the vote in every seat in the country if it has a pro-Brexit policy than if it has an anti-Brexit position.”

The paper was widely distributed to senior figures linked to Momentum and to several members of the shadow cabinet, including the shadow chancellor, John McDonnell, and the Labour party in Scotland. It was not intended for publication.

It claims that three-quarters of Labour voters would back remain in a second referendum. It acknowledges that according to the current polls Labour would lose seats in an election, and shows that Labour faces risks whichever way it turns. But it says that there would be much heavier electoral losses if Labour entered a snap election promising to implement Brexit.'

The TSSA document says:

* If Labour supports the implementation of Brexit it will lose an additional 45 seats in an election, compared with 11 if it opposes Brexit.

* more vociferous opposition to Brexit would win the party an additional five seats.

* The party could lose five of its seven MPs in Scotland by being pro-Brexit.

The briefing says its findings are based on “in-depth polling and focus group work” carried out to prepare for a snap election.The TSSA has been publicly anti-Brexit. It asked 5,125 voters in January what positions would make them see Labour more positively or negatively.

The most popular option was for Labour to oppose Brexit, the second preferred choice was for Labour to honour Brexit but renegotiate a better deal, and the third choice was to support May’s deal.

You can read the full article from The Guardian here: https://bit.ly/2Gjv2AL

 



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