2024-01-08 10:36

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Sea Levels Rise Underestimated By Climate Scientists Says 2019 Report

Given the devastation of floods over the last few weeks in the Uk, it is worth looking back at this news report and maps from a 2019 report into coastal water rise and how it will effect the flood planes in the UK, as sea levels rise across the globe:

Whilst the UK TV News media seems quite slow in its updating of the affects of climate change in their news reports, scientists never slow down on their estimations based on research findings; of the speed of coastal erosion and sea level rises as a result of Climate Change and of Global Warming.

image: Climate Centrall - click to downloadThe latest report from the organisation which plots sea level rises across the globe, has produced a new report which shows that to date the level of sea rises have been underestimated.

Climate Central is an independent group of scientists and communicators who research and report the facts about our changing climate and how it affects people’s lives. They are a policy-neutral 501(c)(3) nonprofit organisation.

Climate Central uses science, big data, and technology to generate thousands of local storylines and compelling visuals that make climate change personal and show what can be done about it.

They address climate science, sea level rise, extreme weather, energy, and related topics. We collaborate widely with TV meteorologists, journalists, and other respected voices to reach audiences across diverse geographies and beliefs.

Their report entitled 'FLOODED FUTURE: Global vulnerability to sea level rise worse than previously understood' makes for worrying reading, looking at the Executive Summary alone:


• As a result of heat-trapping pollution from human activities, rising sea levels could within three decades push chronic floods higher than land currently home to 300 million people

• By 2100, areas now home to 200 million people could fall permanently below the high tide line

• The new figures are the result of an improved global elevation dataset produced by Climate Central using machine learning, and revealing that coastal elevations are significantly lower than previously understood across wide areas

• The threat is concentrated in coastal Asia and could have profound economic and political consequences within the lifetimes of people alive today

• Findings are documented in a new peer-reviewed paper in the journal Nature Communications

They also provide clear and accurate maps of coastal land mass and countrywide maps showing the areas and levels of flooding that current scientific research indicates will be the results of the current levels of global warming by 2030 and beyond.

From the document's Executive Summary, the need for accurate and up to date mapping of coastal and flood risk areas is not an easy project to get right. Generally, existing models have underestimated the risk to sea defences and to flood planes within the mainlands of the UK and of the European mainland:

'Projecting flood risk involves not only estimating future sea level rise but also comparing it against land elevations. However, sufficiently accurate elevation data are either unavailable or inaccessible to the public, or prohibitively expensive in most of the world outside the United States, Australia, and parts of Europe.

This clouds understanding of where and when sea level rise could affect coastal communities in the most vulnerable parts of the world.

A new digital elevation model produced by Climate Central helps fill the gap.

That model, CoastalDEM, shows that many of the world’s coastlines are far lower than has been generally known and that sea level rise could affect hundreds of millions of more people in the coming decades than previously understood.

Based on sea level projections for 2050, land currently home to 300 million people will fall below the elevation of an average annual coastal flood. By 2100, land now home to 200 million people could sit permanently below the high tide line.'

You can download the full report from the Unionsafety E-Library by using search category of 'Climate Change' and also of the peer reviewed research papers in 'Nature' on-line magazine here

Source: Climate Central / Nature

Pic: Bak to News icon link

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